International Financial Risk and Control Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

International Financial Risk and Control - Essay Example It is imperative for transnational business organizations to recognize the determinants of exchange rates and whether the exchange rate variations can be forecasted. International parity conditions refer to the economic theories that connect exchange rates, level of prices as well as the interest rates. In this study, we would attempt to see whether the international parity conditions are effective in forecasting the variations in the exchange rates in the real world. In doing so, we would consider the bilateral exchange rate movements of Euro/Dollar over the past twelve months and observe whether the variations were consistent with one or more of the International Parity Conditions. Subsequently, we would conclude the study by discussing the extent of effectiveness of the International Parity Conditions as a forecasting tool (Eiteman et al., 2007, p.170). In this section of the study, we would assess the relative exchange rate movement of Euro expressed in terms of United States Dol lar. For the convenience of the study, the Euro versus Dollar exchange rate fluctuations for the period of last twelve months were considered. However, to analyze the latest trend of the Euro/USD exchange rate, we would initially focus on the last 120 days movement of the currency. During this period, the highest value for Euro was 1.3788 USD (as recorded on November 8, 2011) while the lowest value of Euro during the same period was 1.2669 (as recorded on January 16, 2012). The latest value of 1 Euro (as on April 20, 2012) was observed to be 1.3192 USD (Source: X-Rates, 2012). The graph above represents the exchange rate movements EUR/USD for the period starting from May 2011 and ending at April 2012. A closer look at the exchange rate chart reveals that the value of Euro in terms of USD during the specified time frame had fluctuated from 1.45 to around 1.3 USD approximately.